The Habits Behind Accurate Predictions audio documentary cover
Business 21 min

The Habits Behind Accurate Predictions

Retired programmers are beating the CIA. The secret is not intelligence.

What separates the best forecasters from everyone else is not intelligence or information but a set of mental habits most people have never been taught. Philip Tetlock's research shows those habits can be learned, and the people who learn them routinely outperform intelligence analysts with classified access.

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forecasting decision making psychology intelligence cognitive bias probability behavioural science prediction cia mental habits superforecasting critical thinking
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